Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security

Lyubov Achba; Dmitry Agafonov

doi:10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39

UDC 338.1 UDC 330.34

2 more Collapse

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS A FACTOR OF THE WORLD ECONOMY TRANSFORMATION: SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR ECONOMIC SECURITY Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security

АА Аа

Published in National Security and Strategic Planning · Issue 2, 2026 · Pages 26–39 · Rubric: Economic security

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39

Received: 15.04.2026 Accepted: 22.06.2026 Published: 30.07.2026

Authors

Lyubov Achba

Dmitry Agafonov

Lyubov Achba

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

St. Petersburg Branch of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Professor · Department of Economics and Finance · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

Dmitry Agafonov

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, St. Petersburg branch St. Petersburg

ABSTRACT

The article examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on the trajectory of global economic growth, the structure of employment, and the resilience of the world economy in 2016–2026. Based on a comparison of forecasts by international organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD, ILO) and industry analytics (McKinsey, PwC, IDC, Stanford HAI), and using macroeconomic modeling, scenario and sectoral analysis, the study reconstructs the ranges of the potential contribution of AI to GDP dynamics, productivity, and investment flows. The findings show that the positive effects of AI are accompanied by high macroeconomic uncertainty, exacerbate cross country and intra industry inequality, provoke a structural transformation of the labor market, and create additional threats to economic security (cyber risks, concentration of capital and computing resources, technological and regulatory fragmentation). The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive integration of macroeconomic and sectoral assessments within a single time horizon, taking into account an “AI readiness” index, which makes it possible to quantitatively characterize the asymmetry in the distribution of benefits and risks across country groups and sectors. It is demonstrated that realizing the potential of AI as a general purpose technology requires coordinated policies by governments and businesses aimed at developing human capital, modernizing digital infrastructure, and shaping institutional mechanisms that minimize social and geoeconomic risks.

KEYWORDS

artificial intelligence, global economy, economic growth, labor market, inequality, investment, economic security

Text

Text (PDF)

Read Download

1. Chui M., Hazan E., Roberts R. et al. The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier. – McKinsey & Company, June 2023. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/tech-and-ai/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier

2. OECD. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Productivity, Distribution and Growth. – OECD Report, April 2024. URL: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/04/the-impact-of-artificial-intelligence-on-productivity-distribution-and-growth_d54e2842/8d900037-en.pdf

3. Varian H. Artificial intelligence, economics, and industrial organization // The economics of artificial intelligence: An agenda. – University of Chicago Press, 2018. – P. 399-419. URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w24839.

4. Bughin J., Seong J., Manyika J. et al. Notes from the AI Frontier: Modeling the Impact of AI on the World Economy. – McKinsey Global Institute, 2018. – URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/artificial-intelligence/notes-from-the-ai-frontier-modeling-the-impact-of-ai-on-the-world-economy

5. Gmyrek P., Berg J., Bescond D. Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. – ILO Working Paper No. 140. – DOI https://doi.org/10.54394/HETP0387

6. OECD. OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market. – Paris: OECD Publishing, 2023. URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-employment-outlook-2023_08785bba-en.html

7. Acemoglu D., Restrepo P. Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Changes Labor Demand // Journal of Economic Perspectives. – 2019. – Vol. 33, No. 2. – P. 3–30. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.3

8. Brynjolfsson E., Mitchell T. What Can Machine Learning Do? Workforce Implications // Science. – 2017. – Vol. 358, Issue 6370. – P. 1530–1534. – DOI https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap8062

9. Cerutti E., Gopinath G., Jaumotte F. et al. The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap. – IMF Working Paper WP/25/76. – Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2025. URL: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025076-print-pdf.pdf

10. PwC. Value in Motion: AI's Potential to Boost Global GDP by up to 15% by 2035. – Press Release, 29 April 2025. – URL: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2025/ai-adoption-could-boost-global-gdp-by-an-additional-15-percentage.html

11. European Commission. White Paper on Artificial Intelligence – A European Approach to Excellence and Trust. – Brussels: European Commission, 2020. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/white-paper-artificial-intelligence-european-approach-excellence-and-trust_en

12. IDC. Global Impact of AI on Economy and Jobs. – IDC White Paper, 2024. URL: https://habr.com/ru/companies/bothub/news/844186/

13. Jaumotte F., Cerutti E., Zhou Y. Bridging Skill Gaps for the Future: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age. – IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/2026/001. – Washington D.C.: IMF, 2026. URL: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/sdn/2026/english/sdnea2026001.pdf

14. UNCTAD. Digital Economy Report 2024: Shaping an Environmentally Sustainable and Inclusive Digital Future. – Geneva: United Nations, 2024. URL: https://unctad.org/publication/digital-economy-report-2024

15. Stanford HAI. The 2025 AI Index Report. – Stanford University, May 2025. – URL: https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report

16. OECD AI Policy Observatory. Artificial Intelligence. – OECD, 2026. – URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/policy-issues/artificial-intelligence.html.

17. World Economic Forum. AI Has Profound Implications for the Manufacturing Industry. – 2024. URL: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/01/ai-implications-manufacturing-industry-workers/

18. World Bank. World Development Report 2023: Data for Better Lives. – Washington D.C.: World Bank, 2023. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2023

19. Analysts estimate the economic effect of AI in the Russian Federation at 12.8 trillion rubles by 2030 // Expert. - 08.12.2025. URL: https://expert.ru/news/analitiki-otsenili-ekonomicheskiy-effekt-ot-ii-v-rf-v-12-8-trln-rubley-k-2030-godu/

20. Agrawal A., Gans J., Goldfarb A. Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence // Innovation Policy and the Economy. – 2019. – Vol. 19. – P. 139–159. – DOI https://doi.org/10.1086/699935

21. PwC. The Fearless Future: 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer. – Insight, 3 June 2025. URL: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/ai/ai-jobs-barometer.html

22. Chaar T., Filippucci F., Jona-Lasinio C., Nicoletti G. AI and the Global Productivity Divide: Fuel for the Fast or a Lift for the Laggards? // OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers. – 2025. URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/ai-and-the-global-productivity-divide_c315ea90-en.html

23. Amodei D. The Future of AI: GDP Growth and Unemployment // Strategy Journal. – 28.01.2026. URL: https://strategyjournal.ru/innovatsii/budushhee-iskusstvennogo-intellekta-rost-vvp-i-bezrabotitsy-konets-epohi-llm-unikalnaya-vozmozhnost-dlya-evropy/

PDF JATS XML

Chairman of editorial board

Vladimir Matveev

070355mvv@gmail.com +7(911)791-08-80

downloads

GOST

Achba L. V., Agafonov D. S. Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security // National Security and Strategic Planning. 2026. no. 2. pp. 26-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39. (Date of access 05.11.2026).

MLA

Lyubov Achba, Agafonov D. S.. "Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security." National Security and Strategic Planning 2026.2 (2026): 26-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39.

APA

Achba L. V., Agafonov D. S. (2026). Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security. National Security and Strategic Planning, 2026(2), 26-39. https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39

Chicago

Lyubov Achba, Agafonov D. S.. "Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security." National Security and Strategic Planning 2026, no. 2 (2026): 26-39. https://doi.org/10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Achba L. V., Agafonov D. S. | title = Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security | journal = National Security and Strategic Planning | year = 2026 | volume = 2026 | issue = 2 | pages = 26-39 | doi = 10.37468/2307-1400-2026-2-26-39 }}

Copy

Export: BibTeX EndNote RefMan RusMARC

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS A FACTOR OF THE WORLD ECONOMY TRANSFORMATION: SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR ECONOMIC SECURITY Artificial intelligence as a factor of the world economy transformation: scenario analysis of risks and consequences for economic security

Confirmation